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Decentralisation, blockchain and AI, the future grid and the space race are some of the areas in which numerous advances have been made in 2023 and are set to continue during 2024.
Over the course of 2023 – and indeed since its start in mid-2022 – this column has not been short of possible new and future technology content to feature. But for this one I have decided to take a forward look to 2024 – and would invite your feedback on its focus and style for the year ahead.
The energy sector in 2023 has been dominated by many advances, such as the drive for decentralisation, the increasing use of Web3 and AI technologies and the focus on the grid as the foundation or ‘backbone’ of the renewables-driven grid of the future and we expect these to continue into 2024.
Decentralisation
Decentralisation of the energy system is a given for the future as consumers are able to instal own generation such as rooftop PV or storage, either fixed or in an electric vehicle – and in turn deliver excess to the grid or trade with peers or form part of a local energy community.
Rising energy prices and the threat of disruptions has been a driver for much of the latest uptake of distributed energy resources – National grid in the UK, for example, has reported more than 40,000 new connections since April 2023 – but coming with this is the increasing need for flexibility.
In the UK again, Octopus reported that one million customers had signed up for a demand flexibility scheme for the current 2023/24 winter season.
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Clearly for participation such schemes must be straightforward from both the consumers’ and suppliers’ perspectives.
The rewards also must be adequate and again quoting Octopus the top 5% of participants in the previous year’s scheme achieved average savings over £40, while the average over all the participating customers was about £7.50.
Delivery of such schemes requires platforms that can automate the process as much as possible, with various technologies possible.
Blockchain, Web3 and AI
One of these is blockchain, which a couple of years ago was being hyped as a technology but since then that has died down as it has matured and its promoters have stood the test of time.
Key issues have been around scalability, interoperability and energy efficiency.
Which use cases that can most benefit from blockchain are still open to debate but one area that is attracting growing interest is renewables tracking and certification and by extension the tracking and certification of other commodities such as e-fuels and CO2 emissions.
Another driver for increasing demand for tracking is ‘circularity’, in this case of ‘hard’ products such as batteries and their components and which is being enabled with the emergence of other Web3 technologies such as self-sovereign identities and digital passports.
With the first battery passports set to appear in Europe – although not obligatory until February 2027 – more products are likely to be caught up in the digital passport net, particularly those containing valuable raw materials as regions such as Europe aim to become as self sufficient as possible on those materials that are critical for their economy.
Another technology that is now widespread is AI, particularly in data related applications and platforms. But much of the future focus is likely to be on generative AI as utilities and companies look to harness it for both customer and internally related applications.
So far only a few sector players have publicly announced their foray into generative AI – most recently E.ON – but these and other early movers are likely to be those to gain the most advantages over competitors.
The future grid
Few would claim to know what the 2050 grid will look like but there are many scenarios from organisations such as the IEA and IRENA and regional bodies such as the EU with its newly released grid action plan as to how to get there.
These include the need for significant and urgent investments, in Europe for example an estimated €584 billion ($641 billion) by 2030.
At the heart of the future grid is smart metering, particularly the second generation meters that provide grid-related data in addition to the regular consumption data.
In the US, installations are ongoing at a rate of about 8 million units per year, while in Europe there has been an acceleration as countries seek to catch up. However, as past rollouts that all too easily have slowed have shown, to maintain the momentum there is a “need for speed”, as Esmig’s managing director Tomás Llobet has put it.
The grids require not only extending but also upgrading for modernisation and reinforcement. But equally important looking ahead is getting the most out of the current and future infrastructure, with flexibility and so-called ‘grid enhancing technologies’ such as dynamic line rating and flexible alternating current transmission system (FACTS).
The space race
Space is increasingly being seen as the next frontier for the energy sector, with space-based data being utilised for utility applications such as renewables siting and vegetation management as well as for other climate related issues such as carbon and methane monitoring and disaster management.
Dubai Electricity & Water Authority (DEWA) has gone a step further, developing and launching its own satellites and has the vision to offer satellite data ‘as a service’ to other utilities.
But perhaps the most significant interest in space from the energy perspective is the potential for space-based solar power.
Caltech’s Space Solar Power Project is the most advanced to date and has delivered three positive demonstrations amid ongoing investigations – that energy can be transmitted from space to Earth, that low cost solar cells show potential for use in space and that it should be possible to deploy the large flexible membranes that will be required for what will be kilometre-scale satellites in space.
While the prospect of commercial space-based solar is likely to be a decade off at least with the considerable technical developments still required, several countries are vying for leadership in the technology.
